The talk about a big spring counter-offensive has been beneficial for Ukraine. It has helped persuade western allies to donate arms, while unnerving Russia and offering hope to those longing for the conflict to end. The idea has been promoted by every Ukrainian official from the President downwards, but when hope turns to hype, there’s a problem – and Kyiv may soon end up paying the price for its own PR success. People are asking where the ‘big push’ is and Volodymyr Zelensky’s team is trying to manage expectations. They are speaking of whatever comes next as another stride in the ongoing war, rather than the final step to an inevitable victory.
The trouble is, the high expectations of Ukraine’s allies may now turn into a liability. A disappointing result could end up eroding the appetite to continue funding Ukraine.
The delay of a spring offensive also dismays some Ukrainians, who are tempted to believe talk of the war being over by the summer. And why shouldn’t they, if the government has been assuring them that the enemy is already exhausted? It’s quite common to hear on Ukrainian TV that one more push will be enough to win.
While the world waits, soldiers on the front line have kept a sombre silence. Now and again, their tweets surface urging everyone to shut up about a counter-offensive and show respect for those who will have to fight (and die). Those who launch an attack usually incur greater casualty rates than defenders. This fact once comforted Ukraine. Now, the same fact has turned against it.
The nine new brigades that have been extensively trained and equipped by the West are, for now, being kept away from the front line. They will be joined by eight brigades of a recently-formed ‘Offensive Guard’ – highly-motivated volunteers chosen for the assault. Some 35,000 applied and were trained from two to four months. But there are obvious dangers in letting an attack be spearheaded by soldiers who have barely seen the battlefield. Soldiers with first-hand experience in the war are better suited for the counter-offensive than those who rely solely on their recent training and expensive war machinery. To achieve success, the Ukrainian military command will need to blend both groups.
Meanwhile, ammunition is being used so quickly that the West can’t keep up the supply. Ukraine is, finally, well equipped with bulletproof vests and helmets but now needs drones and vehicles. Kyiv is prohibited from using international aid for defence purposes, and the arms received are still insufficient.
Some 100,000 Russians are estimated to have died or been wounded in the invasion. Ukraine’s casualties no longer make headline news – but on the front line this is a big topic. Every drop of blood, every damaged vehicle and every shelling still matters. The risk is that the rest of the world gets bored of this, that the war loses its ability to shock.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive will happen, but Kyiv should stop overhyping it. If it’s successful then it has the potential to serve as a wake-up call, to help the world see Ukraine as a live story – rather than as a ‘frozen conflict’ where nothing seems to move. The problem is that Russians are well-prepared to face whatever is coming. After the weeks of hype they have had time get ready and have been digging miles of defensive trenches and summoning reinforcements.
Nonetheless, the West expects the big push to succeed. I’m even told the UK Ministry of Defence is worried about Ukraine doing too well and marching all the way to Crimea, cornering Putin.
But I have a different worry: some in the Ukrainian government have been too busy advertising the counter-offensive rather than preparing for it and ensuring that every soldier has whatever they need. Ukraine’s survival depends, in a way, on a war for the West’s sympathy and support. If we lose that, then the other war will be too hard to win.
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